• Press Release

Election Day

Millions of voters across the US will cast ballots today in one of the most highly anticipated midterm elections in recent years. Polls suggest the final weeks of campaigning were defined by a shift in momentum toward Republicans, driven by persistent inflation and economic concerns. Some projections give the GOP a 55% chance of winning the Senate and more than an 80% chance of retaking the House. See final polls here. Early voting across the US has surpassed the levels seen four years ago, with more than 43 million early votes cast—roughly 20 million ballots were submitted in person, with 23 million mail ballots collected so far. Early voting varies by state; see a breakdown here. The cycle has also shattered records for the most amount of money poured into races, at more than $16B. See the top individual donors, and where the money went, here. Historically, the party that holds the White House averages a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats during midterm cycles. See a visualization of midterm outcomes under each president dating back to Harry Truman. Presidential approval ratings are often viewed as a bellwether for electoral outcomes; President Joe Biden enters the day with net ratings below 50% in 45 states. Some contests may not be called until later in the week—here's when we should know the outcome of the races in every state.

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