Election Eve

Millions of US voters will head to the voting booth tomorrow to cast ballots in what appears to be a deadlocked presidential race. Various poll aggregators—see RealClearPolitics and 538—have former President Donald Trump leading by 0.1% or Vice President Kamala Harris leading by 0.9%, respectively, in national polls. Both figures are within the margin of error. 

These polls capture national sentiment, not probabilities of Electoral College victory (see how the institution works, w/video). Analyst Nate Silver gives Harris about a 75% chance of winning the national vote, but Trump a slight edge in winning (partial paywall) the Electoral College. 

The outcome is expected to be determined by the results in a set of swing states—most notably Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. See how voting patterns in these states have changed in recent elections. 

More than 75 million early votes have been cast thus far—roughly 41 million in person and almost 35 million mail-in ballots. Data (where available) suggest even participation by party, though women outpace men by about nine points nationally. Details vary widely by state; see a breakdown here.  

Also at stake are 34 Senate seats and a number of competitive House districts, with control of each chamber up for grabs. See the most consequential races here.