Grain Deal Deadline

A deal keeping millions of tons of grain moving out of Ukraine via the Black Sea will expire tonight if Russia does not renew the agreement, a potential shock to World Food Program-reliant developing countries and global food prices (see breakdown).

The Black Sea Grain Initiative has released over 30 million tons of grain—mostly wheat, corn, and sunflower (see data)—since it was brokered last July. The accord allows Ukrainian vessels from three ports to safely navigate a Russian-blockaded Black Sea corridor through the Bosporus strait in northwest Turkey, where departing and returning ships are inspected for deal compliance (see map). The deal has faced expiration three times, ultimately being renewed amid diplomatic pressure on Russia.

To keep the deal going, UN officials offered to partially restore Russian access to a Belgium-based international financial payments system known as SWIFT. See updates here.