The global population is set to peak at 10.3 billion and begin declining by 2084, roughly two decades earlier than estimates from two years ago, according to the United Nations biennial population report.
Analysts attribute the earlier peak to a broad decline in fertility rates, the number of children a woman will birth on average. Worldwide, that figure has dropped from 3.5 to 2.5 in three decades and was closer to seven prior to the Industrial Revolution. Experts say women's empowerment, increased rate of successful births, and rising child rearing costs have contributed to dropping fertility rates (see charts).
Demographers theorize developed countries require a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman to keep the population constant. More than half of all countries have a rate below 2.1, including much of Europe, the US, Japan, China, and Russia (see map).
Demographic shifts have significant effects on resources, public revenues, and income security—learn more here.
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