The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicting an 85% chance of 17 to 25 named storms, the highest number NOAA has ever forecast in its preseason outlook.
Among named storms (see list), eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes (wind speeds of at least 74 mph), with four to seven major hurricanes predicted (exceeding 111 mph). Contributing to storm development are near-record warm Atlantic temperatures and the predicted transition to La Niña conditions—leading to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that reduce the wind shear capable of interrupting storm formation (see explainer). Other factors include an above-normal West African monsoon, which can produce easterly waves capable of developing into strong storms.
The season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with peak activity typically between mid-August and mid-October. An average season has 14 named storms.
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