David N. Bass
Carolina Journal
With the general election less than seven weeks away, a new poll of likely voters in North Carolina shows Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are virtually tied. Trump commands 45.6% of the vote, while Harris is close behind with 45.3%, according to the latest Carolina Journal poll. The survey also indicates that 6% of the electorate remains undecided.
The gap has narrowed since August, when Trump was up three percentage points over Harris.
North Carolina, a key battleground state, remains important for both parties. While either candidate can theoretically win the presidency without carrying the Tar Heel State, the path to victory becomes significantly more challenging. Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance underscored this point in a recent media appearance, highlighting the state’s pivotal role in determining the election’s outcome.
“This poll, much like others in NC, paints a picture of ‘it’s just too close to tell’ when the margin of error can potentially cloud whatever fine tune results the poll shows,” said Dr. Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College in Salisbury. “It’s much more important to the Trump campaign to keep NC in its column than for Harris. Harris may have multiple packages of states to build among the seven battlegrounds to build towards 270 [electoral votes], but it’s a common understanding that if NC goes Democratic, the chances of Trump winning the overall race is pretty low.”
“I suspect that the next six weeks will have polls that bounce around somewhat, but all of them will show the race within the margin of error. North Carolina is a closely divided state,” added Dr. David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh.
McLennan agreed that NC is more important for Republicans than Democrats in terms of the electoral college, but the unusual election season means states are in play. “If Trump were to lose North Carolina, there are other states he could win to reach 270 votes,” he said.
Down-ballot races
In the race for governor, Democrat Josh Stein has seen a shift in his favor, with a recent uptick among undecided voters. Stein now leads Republican Mark Robinson 45.5% to 39.2%. This marks a significant change from April when Robinson led Stein by a narrow margin of 40% to 38%. Despite the shift, 12.5% of voters remain undecided.
The generic state legislature ballot has also seen changes. What was a 2% Republican advantage in August is now tied at 46%. But the GOP still outperforms on the congressional ballot, Republicans now leading 48% to 45%, compared to a smaller margin earlier this year.
In line with the rest of the results in the poll, most down-ballot races have also tightened:
Lieutenant governor: The race has moved to 42% for Democrat Rachel Hunt and 40% for Republican Hal Weatherman. Previously, Weatherman led by 2%.
Attorney general: Democrat Jeff Jackson stands at 45%, while Republican Dan Bishop has 43%. Bishop had a 4% lead in August.
Superintendent of public instruction: Democrat Mo Green now leads with 43%, compared to 39% for Republican Michele Morrow. Morrow previously led by 5%.
Labor commissioner: Republican Luke Farley and Democrat Braxton Winston are tied at 41% each.
State treasurer: Republican Brad Briner leads with 42%, while Democrat Wesley Harris follows closely at 40%.
State auditor: Republican Dave Boliek holds 39%, just ahead of Democrat Jessica Holmes at 38%.
Insurance commissioner: Republican Mike Causey leads with 41%, compared to 40% for Democrat Natasha Marcus.
Agriculture commissioner: Republican Steve Troxler has 41%, while Democrat Sarah Taber has 38%.
Secretary of state: Democrat Elaine Marshall leads with 43%, edging out Republican Chad Brown at 42%.
State supreme court justice: Democrat Allison Riggs now leads with 44%, while Republican Jefferson Griffin follows at 41%. Griffin was previously leading by 3%.
Ranking issues
When asked about the most important issue in the 2024 election, respondents highlighted the following: inflation/prices: 30%, immigration: 16%, jobs/economy: 16%, and abortion: 15%.
Queried for their support level for a state constitutional amendment providing that “only a citizen of the United States who is 18 years of age and otherwise possessing the qualifications for voting shall be entitled to vote at any election in this State,” 76% said they would support such an amendment and only 13% were opposed.
The poll surveyed 600 likely general-election voters Sept. 150-16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99%.
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